Category Archives: Economics

New economy vs. old economy

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With the rise of the so-called “Sharing Culture” there’s been a recent upswing in the types of business that focus on connecting people point to point with others that can provide services that people need without a lot of the fuss of other intermediaries. There are, of course, a few pioneers in this type of activity, Napster, Kazaa, but also more “Legitimate” companies, such as eBay, PayPal, and Craigslist. These caused disruption, but not on a seriously massive level. eBay expanded the amount of people that could or would auction off their goods. It more likely impacted the amount of garage sales or donations to Goodwill. Craigslist did have a negative impact on newspaper’s income – however newspapers were having other issues because people just weren’t buying them, so it was somewhat moot. Now, however, there are companies springing up that are impacting much larger less “fringe” portions of our economy.

I first heard of companies like this while in the Netherlands where some of my friends were using Couchsurfing. Which connected people that were passing through an area for a night to two to crash on someone’s couch. I don’t think any money was exchanging hands. I believe that this site was a natural precursor for AirBnB, which has gotten in a lot of hot water lately. This site, for those unaware, allows people to rent out rooms of their house or their entire house for short periods of time. The idea is that the renters can use the stuff in the house and have a cheaper place to stay compared to a hotel. While the owners are able to rent out unused space. For instance, I could rent out my third bedroom if I wanted too.

A lot of people aren’t happy with this notion. For one, it does violate a lot of zoning laws and people are pissed about their neighbors renting out rooms to god knows who. Secondly, it does violate those laws and New York City has decided to do something about that. They’ve asked for information on 15k users in the city. This will likely be a large blow to membership there. If users feel that they are likely to be hit by a law suit or forced to pay licenses to rent out the rooms, renting the rooms will be much less appealing. This of course will thrill hotels as they can continue to enjoy a higher cost.

Part of this stems from the fact that this is new and scary. People don’t understand the change. Part of it comes from the fact that the city doesn’t want people to do this instead of normal rental agreements which “protect” both parties in different ways. An AirBnB arrangement is very different and likely has a lower level of protection (mostly social norm based rather than legal based). Part of it probably has to do with money. The city likely earns less taxes from people renting rooms this way than from Hotels.

These types of differences are going to be occurring on a more frequent basis. We need to help steer the conversation as internet savvy folks and look into how we can create accommodations for both sides. I’m not saying for the hotels, I’m talking about for your neighbors and community. Work with them to help them explain what’s happening, why it’s happening, and what they can do to help develop the social norms for websites like AirBnB rather than destroying it before it has a chance to be successful.

I’m hoping there will be a lot more experimentation in these types of sites even if I never use them. I firmly believe that it’s your house you should be able to use it as you see fit as long as it doesn’t cause harm to other people. Having a two way conversation and educating the different stakeholders involved is crucial to ensuring the survival and continued experimentation in these spaces.

Review of Without Their Permission

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I was inspired to begin writing again by reading Alexis Ohanian of reddit fame’s debut book, titled “Without Their Permission” for those that were regular readers and know me are aware of my interest in the startup community, technology, and activism during the SOPA/PIPA days. So reading this book happily fell into many of those interests.

First of all, this book was entertaining. It’s a rather self aware book and in some cases the humor of it reminded me of Drew Curtis’s book “It’s not News it’s Fark” which is a humorous book that really pokes fun at mainstream media. There’s some of that in this book, but it’s much more playful and selfaware of how important the media has been to Alexis’s success.

During my Master’s thesis research I read a lot of scientific studies that looked at the types of businesses, industries, education, and so forth of founders. Which really focused on the technical skills of the founders. This book didn’t. Alexis wasn’t the technical brains behind reddit, he was the “other stuff” that helped make reddit reddit. I believe that this is a fantastic view point to bring to the conversation on start ups, incubators, accelerators, etc… because it’s something that’s missing.

I have to say at first while reading the book I was really annoyed by the line “every link is created equal” because in any network this simply isn’t try. Any unconnected link is equal, but as soon as the Internet is the Internet links become less equal because of interconnectedness of the Internet. At first this prevented me from enjoying the book because I was so focused on this, however after working 8 hours I forgot about it until it was mentioned later. I only bring this up, because a large portion of the book is spent discussing how important networking is to the success of a startup. It became clear to me that Alexis gets it.

I also found this book enjoyable because it is much less self congratulatory about the Internet entrpreneurs than other books such as Makers, the New industrial revolution, Micro Wikinomics and Macro Wikinomics which cover very similar topics and ideas. In fact any time it felt to be getting too overly optimistic Alexis would point out that everything comes from hard work. It’s work that almost everyone can do, but it takes dedication.

Alexis points out a lot of successes that he’s been involved with as an investor, which provide a lot of great anecdotal experience as well as a graduate’s perspective from the Y-Combinator. I think these views are all helpful as we begin to look for more unique ways to fund startups beyond the traditional VC method.

Finally, I enjoyed the section about SOPA/PIPA which was interesting as I was actively involved on reddit and blogging to inform others about what was happening. Some of that included sharing the interviews Alexis did during that time period.

In general this book is definitely a great introduction to a more realistic view of Internet entrepreneurship from a successful founder, a great introduction to many unique startups out there that are very inclusive, and a great introduction to SOPA/PIPA for people that weren’t paying attention.

Get out there and make something great happen.
5/5

Trust and Networks

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At work today, my team and I went through training on something called the “Speed of Trust” which essentially argues that the more trust an organization has the less costs there are associated with doing business. Not only are things cheaper, but they happen faster. I was actually pleasantly surprised, I’m typically pretty skeptical of things like this as a rule because I feel that they compress extremely complicated ideas down to a single scale to be measured on. However, with the facilitator’s contribution of how the different types of powers interact with trust it became a lot more meaningful, even if there were so many platitudes provided by the author of the book during the videos that were shown.

I think that there’s one area that was definitely missing from this topic that was only moderately touched on – Networks. There are plenty of network theories that discuss the obvious cost savings and accumulation of social capital in better ways than was covered in this discussion.

Social Capital is a way of measuring how much influence you have in a network. Unfortunately, the only networks that were recognized in this method are the formal networks that are created simply by being an organization. There was no discussion of how people can create informal networks that can have more influence on the organization than the actual formal network structures. For instance, if I want to change the direction of some project and I’m struggling within the project itself, I may try to use my formal structure of going up through my manager over to one of the managers of the people on the team. However, this is typically considered poor form, another option would be to discuss the topic with someone else that is influential and spend some social capital and have the problem resolved informally. These networks can influence the structure of organizations because people that are managers may not be the thought leaders in the organizations. When striving for change in an organization it is crucial to expend social capital on the most influential people – titlewise or otherwise.

Furthermore, these networks can enable anyone to generate more powerful ideas. As you discuss issues or ideas with many different people in the organization and include their suggestions or comments around the idea/issue it’s possible to create significantly better ideas. Then whenever you’ve come to the point where you’d like to enact your idea, you’ve already built a coalition of support through your conversations and will have more successful ideas.

The Speed of Trust course was pretty useful to help determine how to address trust issues in an organization. It’s important to identify where and how things are going wrong. However, I think it’s important to keep in mind network theory to maximize the benefit of trust.

Looming battle: Content providers vs. service providers

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In my last post about the PS4, I discussed how the PS4 is a long term play and that over time the product will move away from playing directly on the PS4 towards utilizing servers to stream the game to the user. This was an argument to counter many PC gamer’s disdain for the specs for the system. Sure, the specs aren’t great, but they are a huge advancement over the PS3, which is still able to play, rather well, new games.

Most of the feedback I got on the article basically went “well that’s great and all, but the infrastructure isn’t there for this in the US.” This is extremely valid feedback. AOL still records $500 Million in revenue from dial up connections. The US rates among the worst in developed world for internet speeds and penetration. Of course there’s the argument that our country is so much larger, well, the EU as a whole tops us, it’s not uniform across the EU, but that still makes it a valid comparison. The other thing to remember, the console won’t just come out in the US. Many of these features will work better in Korea and Japan than in the US. Typically Sony has released different features by region and will likely experiment with the sharing features in Japan before rolling it out to the US, where Sony knows it will have infrastructure difficulties.

This discussion raises additional concerns though, infrastructure isn’t just about the lines in the ground, but also the structure of the service providers that allow access. In the case of the US, not only does quality and speed of the connection vary wildly but we also have more restrictions on the amount of data we can download than other countries. For a typical family you end up buying the internet 2 or 3 times at the minimum (smart phone access per family member and then the main house connection). Each of these connections likely has a different maximum for downloading or uploading with fees for going over this.

This creates a lot of difficulties as we don’t always know how much bits a specific file will use as we access it. In many cases, it likely drives consistent under utilization of the service do to excessive fees and user dissatisfaction for those hitting the cap. Americans are starting to cut the cord in record numbers, my wife and I don’t have TV, just cable internet; I have a lot of options without Cable. This is going to start increasing the rate of frustration users have with caps. I typically watch live streaming video in 720p while my wife surfs the net and watches a show on Hulu.

I have absolutely no idea how much bandwidth is being consumed on a typical night. There is no easy way for me to measure this or plan for getting close to a cap. Furthermore, both my wife and I use our phones to access the internet, listen to music, watch videos, and play games on our phones. Again, all of these use bandwidth and likely push us against our cellular plan. Sure there’s meters for these, but they are notoriously inaccurate.

This issue with be further exacerbated by the proliferation of cloud services like Drop Box, video sharing on YouTube, streaming new services all the time, and the eventual goal of offloading computing power to the cloud. The measurement of these services will be extremely difficult and planning for how much data these services will require will be absurdly difficult at best for the average user. It is likely that these services will push users over the usage caps on a monthly bases.

I think that we need to start looking for another solution. I think that Google Fiber is a start, it would make sense for Netflix, Amazon, Dishnetwork, Microsoft, Intel, and other content providers to join a consortium that will introduce a new service provider to attack the incumbents. I have heard that Dish is currently working on creating their own system with Google or some other company, I think that this could potentially shake up the industry and allow users more options. There are going to be a wealth of new services that require more and more bandwidth and higher speeds. If these content providers want users to be able to access and enjoy their services they need to challenge the status quo to enable their customers.

PS4 may not be as bad as everyone thinks

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The PS4 was announced yesterday, 2/20/2013, it was immediately pummeled by the media and on social networks. I think that this might be a touch premature. Why? I’ll list out a few different reasons and let the reader decide if I’m off my rocker.

First, streaming to the PS Vita. Commentators have already compared this to the Nvidia shield, while I think this is accurate, I think that misses part of the point behind this capability. The true purpose is to get people used to the idea of streaming a video game from one system onto another system. We are used to doing this with video already, but we aren’t used to truly playing something that is entirely run on a different system than the one we’re interacting with.

Second, play while downloading. This feature is again to help us get used to the idea of streaming a game from a server. Sony acquired Gaikai a while back which enables playing a game on the server. Initially offering only server side play while downloading is a very safe way for Sony to test system requirements on the server side, manage capacity needs by limiting the amount of concurrent users, and developing an understanding how game play feels when thousands of people are playing the same game over an internet connection.

Third, console gaming systems have always had lower specs than the bleeding edge PC games. However, the platform is stable and encourages developers to figure out new ways of exploiting the technology. They don’t have to worry about continually changing systems. On top of that, the developers will eventually begin to exploit the combination of the CPU and GPU using OpenCL and figure out new ways to eek more out of less using that technology.

Fourth, in 5 years it won’t matter what is underneath the hood of the PS4. Not because no one will be playing it, but because Sony will have acclimated users to streaming over the Vita. Sony will have acclimated users to streaming from a server through downloads. Sony will have determined server requirements to host all games and stream the game to the PS4. It’s likely that there will be some experimental games that will allow playing both client side or server side, but eventually there will be a game that will only be server side. It will be a big game and it will begin to push all other games to the server. At this point Sony will have optimized the hardware for the PS4 to display higher quality game play coming over the internet.

The PS4 is not the next console for Sony, it likely could be the “last” console for Sony as it develops new ways for users to access games and continually “upgrade” their console as the server side technology for game streaming continually matures. This of course eliminates the need to sync a disc to a specific system and even removes the need to download any content. You buy a short cut and you can play immediately.

So, is the PS4’s hardware going to be kill the PS4? No, the hardware on this system isn’t the point. The goal is to allow access to games that will be streamed from the cloud.