Category Archives: Technology

Technology focused posts.

NSA, Phone Records, and access to data systems

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NSA – Nothing to See Anywhere around here. The past two days have been bad for the Obama administration for both leaks and for privacy concerns. It was leaked yesterday to the Guardian’s reporter Glenn Greenwald whom a lot of people in the US aren’t fans of because he sticks to his morals regardless of which party is in power. This leak showed something that really shouldn’t be that big of a surprise to anyone. In fact, Senators are all like, what’s the big deal this has been going on since 2007. This was originally just AT&T that was wrapped up in this, but everyone suspected other telecoms were involved. After that had come to light congress retroactively gave immunity to the telecoms, despite an ongoing law suit from the EFF – which was dismissed, although EFF filed another shortly their after.

Today was another turn of events where operation PRISM was unmasked, by both the Guardian and Washington Post. This system has direct access to major technology companies servers including Google and Facebook, although both companies deny this. Superficially, PRISM is intended to filter through to a majority of foreign based data. In this case it’s seriously the slimmest majority – only 51% – a majority though, although in the US Senate you’d never know.

How are these things possible? Two major reasons, the Patriot Act and the “Secret” FISA Court. I use quotes around “Secret” because it’s as “secret” as the drone program. However, we don’t know what decisions are being made, we don’t know what is being taken before the court, and we have no idea what sort of “do process” standards have been implemented in this court. If it’s anything like the drone program it’s likely just a few people sitting in a room talking about how bad terrorism is and data like the above to determine the guy needs to die. It’s no way to run a democracy.

With the combination of the data in our phone records and our internet usage the NSA can create a massive time based network of connections between both Americans and Foreigners. Abrupt changes in the make up of a persons network with people from countries of interest likely flag them as a risk for interacting with Terrorist. Additionally, if a new pattern was detected the NSA would likely go back and look at historic data to try to understand why this new pattern arose and what they could do to predict future shifts in networks towards engaging with these groups of people. It would also lead the NSA to create models that could indicate how likely someone is to develop behavior patterns of terrorists after their network shifts from one sub group to different subgroups. Furthermore, it’s likely that this information would be even more of interest if there’s a full shift of members of that person’s network towards more potential extremists.

We need to work to change this. The Senate knew about this and plans to hold closed door meetings to discuss it. These discussions should be public not behind closed doors. It’s a disgrace.

3D Printed Gun, Robots, and the future of food pricing

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Recently there’s been a company based here in Austin Texas called Defense Distributed, which has been garnering a lot of attention. This is due to the fact that first, they developed a 3D printed magazine for an AR15. Then the decided to develop 3D printed versions of portions of the gun itself. These parts are being printed in plastic, so it seems unlikely that a plastic gun would work right? Well, the lower receiver for the AR15 can survive shooting 600 rounds. That’s a big deal. The first version was able to shoot one, the second only 7. As of yesterday they released a fully printable handgun. Due to restrictions in the US gun code a gun must have a certain minimum weight of metal to be detectable by metal detectors (125g). I think that this will have major ramifications – I’m not even talking about gun rights, or gun ownership or gun whatever. I’ll discuss those in a later post. Below is a video of the “Liberator” in action.

How is this a big deal in other ways than just Gun rights? Well, several months ago a book came out called “Race Against the Machine” which argues that we need to figure out how to work with robots and computers in an effective way to maximize the returns for both workers and for the owners of the computer/robots. One of these robots they discuss is a $25k robot called Baxter. This robot is extremely easy to program and control. It offers a lot of the capabilities that a low skill employee could offer and more than many expensive robots. In fact we’re seeing this in re-shoring efforts from companies like Tesla and Apple. They won’t be bringing back the old school manufacturing jobs. There will only be technician jobs related to fixing broken equipment, which will be significantly fewer jobs. Even if Baxter only lasts 3 years, it more than paid for itself in being able to operate for 24/7 for 25k in total rather than paying four people more than that each year.

Add in the capability for people to download  designs for guns and many other things from Thingiverse which can be printed from home and how cheap it is to send designs to companies like Shapeways – where you can print in metal, these changes are going to radically change our current manufacturing infrastructure and distribution system. We aren’t prepared for this and it’s going to reduce the number of low end jobs in existence.

Which brings me to the next point. Food prices are high. When people can’t feed themselves there are riots and revolts. We’ve seen this twice already in the past 5 years and we’re poised for more violence by August of this year. According to a study published two years ago food prices are near the threshold level of the Arab Spring. If these prices are still as high as predicted then we could see some serious issues in the next few years unless we radically begin rethinking our economic models.

We’ll be seeing massive disruption and opportunities in the manufacturing space. This will likely have massive ramifications on our supply chain, which has huge numbers of employees. The ability to print your own cheap plastic products could impact toy sales and the retail industry.

Is this bound to happen, no, certainly not. However, 3D Printers are now available for sale at Staples for $1,300 prebuilt, they’ve come pretty close to mainstream. The next step are going to be more advanced printers that are able to print faster, cool faster, print more complex designs with less structure, and eventually we might be able to print metal products on a printer that costs $1300. A lot of people won’t want to do this, but there will be enough where it could have a serious impact on the economy.

What do you think? Am I overreacting?

Looming battle: Content providers vs. service providers

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In my last post about the PS4, I discussed how the PS4 is a long term play and that over time the product will move away from playing directly on the PS4 towards utilizing servers to stream the game to the user. This was an argument to counter many PC gamer’s disdain for the specs for the system. Sure, the specs aren’t great, but they are a huge advancement over the PS3, which is still able to play, rather well, new games.

Most of the feedback I got on the article basically went “well that’s great and all, but the infrastructure isn’t there for this in the US.” This is extremely valid feedback. AOL still records $500 Million in revenue from dial up connections. The US rates among the worst in developed world for internet speeds and penetration. Of course there’s the argument that our country is so much larger, well, the EU as a whole tops us, it’s not uniform across the EU, but that still makes it a valid comparison. The other thing to remember, the console won’t just come out in the US. Many of these features will work better in Korea and Japan than in the US. Typically Sony has released different features by region and will likely experiment with the sharing features in Japan before rolling it out to the US, where Sony knows it will have infrastructure difficulties.

This discussion raises additional concerns though, infrastructure isn’t just about the lines in the ground, but also the structure of the service providers that allow access. In the case of the US, not only does quality and speed of the connection vary wildly but we also have more restrictions on the amount of data we can download than other countries. For a typical family you end up buying the internet 2 or 3 times at the minimum (smart phone access per family member and then the main house connection). Each of these connections likely has a different maximum for downloading or uploading with fees for going over this.

This creates a lot of difficulties as we don’t always know how much bits a specific file will use as we access it. In many cases, it likely drives consistent under utilization of the service do to excessive fees and user dissatisfaction for those hitting the cap. Americans are starting to cut the cord in record numbers, my wife and I don’t have TV, just cable internet; I have a lot of options without Cable. This is going to start increasing the rate of frustration users have with caps. I typically watch live streaming video in 720p while my wife surfs the net and watches a show on Hulu.

I have absolutely no idea how much bandwidth is being consumed on a typical night. There is no easy way for me to measure this or plan for getting close to a cap. Furthermore, both my wife and I use our phones to access the internet, listen to music, watch videos, and play games on our phones. Again, all of these use bandwidth and likely push us against our cellular plan. Sure there’s meters for these, but they are notoriously inaccurate.

This issue with be further exacerbated by the proliferation of cloud services like Drop Box, video sharing on YouTube, streaming new services all the time, and the eventual goal of offloading computing power to the cloud. The measurement of these services will be extremely difficult and planning for how much data these services will require will be absurdly difficult at best for the average user. It is likely that these services will push users over the usage caps on a monthly bases.

I think that we need to start looking for another solution. I think that Google Fiber is a start, it would make sense for Netflix, Amazon, Dishnetwork, Microsoft, Intel, and other content providers to join a consortium that will introduce a new service provider to attack the incumbents. I have heard that Dish is currently working on creating their own system with Google or some other company, I think that this could potentially shake up the industry and allow users more options. There are going to be a wealth of new services that require more and more bandwidth and higher speeds. If these content providers want users to be able to access and enjoy their services they need to challenge the status quo to enable their customers.

PS4 may not be as bad as everyone thinks

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The PS4 was announced yesterday, 2/20/2013, it was immediately pummeled by the media and on social networks. I think that this might be a touch premature. Why? I’ll list out a few different reasons and let the reader decide if I’m off my rocker.

First, streaming to the PS Vita. Commentators have already compared this to the Nvidia shield, while I think this is accurate, I think that misses part of the point behind this capability. The true purpose is to get people used to the idea of streaming a video game from one system onto another system. We are used to doing this with video already, but we aren’t used to truly playing something that is entirely run on a different system than the one we’re interacting with.

Second, play while downloading. This feature is again to help us get used to the idea of streaming a game from a server. Sony acquired Gaikai a while back which enables playing a game on the server. Initially offering only server side play while downloading is a very safe way for Sony to test system requirements on the server side, manage capacity needs by limiting the amount of concurrent users, and developing an understanding how game play feels when thousands of people are playing the same game over an internet connection.

Third, console gaming systems have always had lower specs than the bleeding edge PC games. However, the platform is stable and encourages developers to figure out new ways of exploiting the technology. They don’t have to worry about continually changing systems. On top of that, the developers will eventually begin to exploit the combination of the CPU and GPU using OpenCL and figure out new ways to eek more out of less using that technology.

Fourth, in 5 years it won’t matter what is underneath the hood of the PS4. Not because no one will be playing it, but because Sony will have acclimated users to streaming over the Vita. Sony will have acclimated users to streaming from a server through downloads. Sony will have determined server requirements to host all games and stream the game to the PS4. It’s likely that there will be some experimental games that will allow playing both client side or server side, but eventually there will be a game that will only be server side. It will be a big game and it will begin to push all other games to the server. At this point Sony will have optimized the hardware for the PS4 to display higher quality game play coming over the internet.

The PS4 is not the next console for Sony, it likely could be the “last” console for Sony as it develops new ways for users to access games and continually “upgrade” their console as the server side technology for game streaming continually matures. This of course eliminates the need to sync a disc to a specific system and even removes the need to download any content. You buy a short cut and you can play immediately.

So, is the PS4’s hardware going to be kill the PS4? No, the hardware on this system isn’t the point. The goal is to allow access to games that will be streamed from the cloud.

Apple and Quality

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I know I’m not always the biggest Apple fan on here. But there’s one thing I have to admit, they typically come out with a really well put together product. If they don’t, they are fairly quick about providing a free solution – such as the case for the iPhone with the antennae issues. However, this version doesn’t seem to be along the same lines. There’s the issue with iOS maps, which is pretty terrible, but there’s also another problem with the sapphire lens selected for the camera causes a purple tint and light flaring. Their solution is to simply point the camera away from the light and that this is normal behavior.

This type of quality issues in a product like this leaves a lot to be desired for some pretty obvious reasons. For a lot of people the cell phone is their only camera. I almost never take pictures, but when I do, it’s on my cell phone. If the pictures are defective by “design” then this is going to be a huge problem. I’m sure that the Instagram filter won’t look right when you add that to the picture as well.

I think that these two issues are starting to indicate a trend with Apple for the beginning of a decline in the perfectionism that most users associate with Apple products. To some extent it was never there the way people like to think that it was, but there was a lot of perfectionism that went into the designing and material selection for the phones.

You could argue that the tint is similar in defect type to the antennae issue, but I think this is different because the camera is such an integral part of the phone. Apple has been developing cameras for years whereas the antennae issue was related to a new skill set, an external antennae.

The next concern for Apple fans, is that the phone is their core product and they really dropped the quality in some ways. Without proper maps, the quality certainly suffers, users are used to the correct maps at a touch of a button, not seven. Will these issues prevent iPhone fans from buying this phone? No, I don’t think so. I think it might push some people away if they were on the fence about getting the same phone, again. I think the larger risk is in the long term. If Apple continues to produce the same products but continues to have quality issues with some expected features on a phone then Apple will begin to lose customers in droves.

For the iPhone6 Apple needs to come out with a different feeling phone, if they do, any issues like camera or whatever will be masked by the fact that it’s totally new. People will flock to it again. If Apple doesn’t come out with a new feeling and has issues, I think that will give more people pause about the whole company. We’re a year or two away from the iPhone6, so that may be premature. Customers and analysts aren’t friendly to stagnating firms. Apple surely doesn’t want to be in that group.